I have talked about this many times with personal friends. The technology versus evolution debate. Read more in And now for something completely different โฆ
I have been away for some time. I have been extremely busy researching and preparing forecasts for other countries. In a nutshell, I have been swamped. However, I have a maps forecast from last week that I will share with you now.
MAPS
Remember this is the first time I have used the recoded model for this, so I take it with a grain of salt. I need to go back and do historical training on the new version. So far I think it could be verified given the increases, many localized across the country. Be aware that the data reported is not always correct. Before, the forecast here is a little aside relating to the insane wastewater values that came out of Hawaii. From Emmanuel (@ejustin46)
Emmanuel
๐๐๐ฎ ๐จ๐ช๐๐ ๐๐ฃ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐๐จ๐ ๐๐ฃ ๐พ๐๐๐๐ฟ-19 ๐ฌ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ฌ๐๐ฉ๐๐ง ๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ก ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ฎ ๐๐ฃ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐๐?
Wastewater data is often an aggregate of data from several sampling sites. They are reliable, but it only takes a few sites with extreme values โโ...2) ...for the average to be artificially high.
In Hawai, there are 13 sites but the latest data are from 8 sites, including 7 sites with less than 6 months data.3) While the level is very low in the US, we were surprised by this increase in Hawaii and looked site by site to understand.
4) When we look in detail (thanks to @AltenbergLee, for the graph) we see that there is only 1 sampling site where there was a strong increase
5) We can also look at the evolution over the last 15 days on each sampling site on the very well-designed CDC site.
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-traโฆCOVID Data TrackerCDCโs home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance
6) We then see, that in the majority of sites we actually have a trend that is reversing.
7) We had already reported this phenomenon for example for Sweden with the last wave JN.1
8) The pandemic is far from being over, but we cannot communicate information without citing our sources and especially without verifying and analyzing them, otherwise the information will be discredited.
Thanks for reading ๐
Now back to the forecast. It appears that we could be headed for a peak similar to last January as a result of the introduction of JN.1. For this forecast KP.2 started as the dominant variant and was quickly overtaken by KP.3. Kp.3 then continued a slow climb that is just peaking at the end of the integrations, around the end of September. The immune escape on this variant is extremely high and it appears that it has little regard for natural immunity from prior infections.
So letโs see what what last Fridayโs CDC report was.
Sure enough, KP.3 is the dominant variant. Keep an eye on LB.1. This could likely be the successor the next time the variant proportion analysis comes out. The KP and LB variants are descendants of JN.1. LB.1 has high immune escape and its transmission is enhanced relative to the other variants.
The following is from the Cato Labs. First, immune escape. WOW!
Here is the possible infectivity.
I did not have LB.1 in the forecast above but it will be in the next go at it this week. The figure indicates the transmission of these relative to JN.1 is substantial (Rโs 30-40%>JN.1). This will be a game changer in the next forecast. I will have more about assuming a variant will be dominant because of early derived characteristics, this is not always the case.
Dr. Michael Hoerger also has a new forecast out (pmc19.com/data/). It appears that the upward swing is at the end of his forecast. Mike could likely be experiencing the same thing as many of, the wastewater data is in a sorry state. The biobot data is withering on the vine.
This period reminds me of last summer in a way. We have a swarm of variants and the rise of different branches is changing quickly. We know what came out of that, JN.1 (BA.2.86). I will speed up my forecasts based on the best data available. Look for the landscape to be completely different in the CDC variant proportion data in two weeks.
The Covid Xfeed - H5N1
Folks, we have trouble brewing for the avian flu. It appears the last reported human infection was in the respiratory tract. This is not a good omen because it indicates the first mutation (PB2) out of 4 required for human-to-human transmission might have occurred. Whether it takes the next steps will depend on how the situation is handled.
The brilliant Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding caught some unwarranted grief for this thread. I let him know I was 100% behind him. The man is brilliant and does his best to help us all. His inside information sometimes makes those in power feel uncomfortable. He calls out stuff as he sees it. That is one reason why I respect him so much. I will heed his advice!
Eric Feigl-Ding
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๐กLISTEN UPโI would start STOCKPILING these flu medicines (xofluza, relenza, Tamiflu) for your family STARTING NOW. If bird flu is ever human-to-human transmissibleโฆ you will regret it when near-certain shortage hits. (Many epidemiologists/MD friends all agree & already started)
2) Yes these are all prescription flu medicines. You need a prescription. Iโm saying next time you get flu symptoms of any sort, ask for it. Iโm just sharing what many epidemiology and medical colleagues are already doing. Donโt shoot the messenger.
3) Iโm aware this pre-stockpiling of prescription medicines is an extremely privileged thing where not everyone can do it. And you should only take it if you have the flu, but it doesnโt hurt to ask your doctor if they can dispense it if they deem appropriate. Others agree.
4) And yes, these 3 prescription flu drugs are all deemed as likely efficacious against (most) H5N1 bird flu strains. Other experts agree.
. medpagetoday.com/special-reportโฆ
Do Our Flu Antivirals Work on H5N1?Infectious disease physicians weigh inhttps://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/features/109891#:~:text=And%20that's%20consistent%20with%20the,polymerase%20inhibitor%20baloxavir%20(Xofluza)
5) Does the CDC agree Tamiflu will be effective against H5N1 avian flu? Yes. In fact, CDC even says it can be used for โpost exposure prophylaxisโ after virus exposure too.
(twice%20daily,resistance%20if%20infection%20is%20established. cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/hโฆ
Key Public Health Reccommendations for H5N1 Bird FluLearn about CDC's current H5N1 prevention recommendationshttps://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/hpai/hpai-health-recommendations.html#:~:text=Oseltamivir%20treatment%20dosing%20
6) If youโre a high risk poultry or dairy farm worker or veterinarian with contact with cows or poultry, I would ask your doctor for it too. The CDC says possible exposure people should take Tamiflu too.
cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/hโฆ
Key Public Health Reccommendations for H5N1 Bird FluLearn about CDC's current H5N1 prevention recommendationshttps://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/hpai/hpai-health-recommendations.html
7) is it COVID or flu or something else?โ people often wonder. But getting tested for flu and COVID was a hassle before. โก๏ธThere is now an FDA EUA approved triple combo Flu A Flu B and COVID single test. See below.
If you order with friends and family, it is $12.76 each if you bulk order 48 tests or more. And use the โCOVIDTESTโ promo code for 20% off.
(I donโt make any profit. Not a referral link). store.pharmalynk.com/products/cordxโฆ
Buy CorDx Tyfast Flu A/B & COVID-19 At-Home Test - PharmalynkStay ahead with CorDx Tyfast Multiplex Test. Detect flu A/B & COVID-19 in 10 mins at home. Clinically validated for accuracy. Order now from Pharmalynk online store for convenience & peace of mind!https://store.pharmalynk.com/products/cordx-tyfast-flu-a-b-covid-19-at-home-multiplex-rapid-test
8) Sidenote: I HAVE ZERO CONFLICTS. None of the flu medicine companies pay me, none have contacted me or asked me for any promotion, and no COVID/flu tests companies pay me either. This is purely an FYI of what many HCWs/scientists are already doing. Donโt shoot the messenger.
9) Another anecdote Iโll shareโbecause children under 12 years old are not eligible technically for Paxlovid if COVID positive, some doctors and nurse practitioners have been prescribing Tamiflu for kids. There is some data showing faster viral clearance.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10203981/
10) Scientists are not trying to fear monger. The fact that ferrets had 100% mortality to bird flu, and ferrets are one of the best animal models for human infection, is very worrisome. @RickABright is a world renowned bird flu expert. And heโs extremely concerned.
11) TO BE CLEARโabsolutely do not lie to your doctor. You can actually get Tamiflu as a prophylactic drug โ โก๏ธyou can get the drug for PREVENTION of infection, before you get sick. And does it work for flu prevention? YES it does. So ask your doctor.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/โฆ
Effectiveness of Oseltamivir in Preventing Influenza in Household ContactsContextย Influenza virus is easily spread among the household contacts of an infected person, and prevention of influenza in household contacts can control spread of influenza in the community.Objectโฆhttps://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/193547
12) FDA approved Tamiflu for PREVENTION tooโ Folks, the FDA even grants approval for both treating and preventing flu. โAdditionally, oseltamivir is considered suitable for prophylactic use in patients 1 year and older.โ
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK539909/
13) A special statement to people misunderstanding this thread.
PERSONAL NOTEโSometimes I share info that might be unpopular to some. For example, stocking up on certain antiviral flu medications (which FDA does allow for prevention & stopping transmission even if youโre not sickโso much poor info/misinfo from a few ignorant MDs)โฆ But many experts know in their hearts they would do for their own family secretly/quietly, but would tell others not to, or would keep what they do a SECRET. Examples:
During early pandemicโmany MDโs stockpiled CASELOADS of expensive COVID tests for holiday partiesโbut told nobody outside their family/friend circles about the strategy.
Many doctors & their friends stocked up on Paxlovid or Flu medicines or Antibiotics BEFORE GOING ON VACATION because they knew it was a good idea, but ashamed to tell anyone they did it for themselves.
Many doctors wanted to wait for Novavax or got extra shot of Novavax or extra vaccine booster shot for themselves and their family above/beyond FDA/CDC recommendations, and then told nobody.
Many doctors obtain Plan B, plus countless other medications for their own family just in case.
Or bought all their friends at work HEPA FILTERS / upgrading the ventilation systems for all rooms, but all the while, turned around and told the public at same time that โCOVID IS NOT AIRBORNEโโ
oh wait that last one wasnโt a person, it was actually just Geneva HQ office of the WHO being hypocrites (yes, they did this!!)
But I am a no bullshit guy. I will tell the public the PRECAUTIONARY thing that many experts are thinking/doing even if is sometimes unpopular or if they are doing it quietly for their own family. Yet some people are mad at me for โtalking about the Emperorโs New Clothesโ and lifting the veil on the insider world of many doctors and experts doing for their own family. But some claim that Iโm supposedly a bad person for sharing such info? Iโm just a messengerโdonโt shoot the PUBLIC HEALTH messenger please. (SIDE NOTE #1โI didnโt go against any FDA/CDC rules since preventive prescribing and prophylactic use is allowed for flu antivirals) (SIDE NOTE #2โI was personally invited by senior WHO officials to Geneva in 2021 when offices mostly closed except to senior/critical staff. I saw and was told stuff most people in the world have not seen/heard. So please donโt lecture me about what about rules being bent during the pandemic.)
And now for something completely different โฆ
As you know I spend a considerable amount of time in spaces on X with many of our Long Covid brothers and sisters. Sometimes it goes philosophical and one topic I bring up is the ever-increasing concern that technology is moving so fast that humans cannot keep pace in their adaptions to it. And I am not talking about the physical aspects of evolution. Well, this nugget caught my eye.
Research is showing that many of our contemporary problems, such as the rising prevalence of mental health issues, are emerging from rapid technological advancement and modernisation. A theory that can help explain why we respond poorly to modern conditions, despite the choices, safety and other benefits they bring, is evolutionary mismatch.
Mismatch happens when an evolved adaptation, either physical or psychological, becomes misaligned with the environment. Take moths and some species of nocturnal flies, for example. Because they have to navigate in the dark, they evolved to use the moon for direction. But due to the invention of artificial lighting, many moths and flies are drawn to street lamps and indoor lights instead.
The same happens for humans. A classic example is our โsweet toothโ, which motivated ancestral humans to search for calorie-rich foods in nutritionally scarce environments. This sweet tooth becomes mismatched to the modern world when food companies mass produce foods laden with refined sugars and fat, hijacking an otherwise useful trait. The result is tooth decay, obesity and diabetes.
The modern world is replete with things that make our once-adaptive instincts go awry. For instance, humans evolved to live in kin-based, nomadic tribes of approximately 50 to 150 close-knit people. Our adaptive need to belong functions well in such settings. In large cities populated by hundreds of thousands of strangers, however, people can end up feeling lonely and like they have not many close friends.
โฆ
The social inequality in modern societies also differs from the more egalitarian hunter-gatherer environment. Humans evolved to care about social status, which motivates us to redress status gaps between ourselves and others. But when social disparity is too intense and people like Elon Musk, whose net worth would take the average American several million years of work at the mean annual wage to catch up with, are regularly made salient by the media, our concerns with social status can lead to social status anxiety.
Several problematic trends can be understood from this evolutionary mismatch. For instance, competition and status anxiety have been linked to obsessions with educational attainment, vying for prestigious jobs and materialism. There is a growing trend of โgoing broke to look richโ, as people incur debt to afford things that create the impression of having status.
People are also more likely to take risks when they feel that they need to gain a competitive edge. Coupled with the rising cost of living, people can find their jobs are inadequate not only to keep up with societal expectations but also to build wealth.
Read more about what we can do at the link below. An engaging article to say the least.
Human culture is changing too fast for evolution to catch up โ hereโs how it may affectย you
I will get the new forecast to you in a couple days. Stay safe and help those who need it most.
take care,
Joe
I love this article, easy read but stimulates the brian in many ways.
Viruses Finally Reveal Their Complex Social Life - Quanta Magazine
Where do viruses hide in the human body? | The BMJ
Understanding immunity and viruses through the John Snow Project
Variant tracking at the CDC
Infections at WHN (updated!)
The neuroinvasiveness, neurotropism, and neurovirulence of SARS-CoV-2: Trends in Neurosciences (cell.com)
And now for something completely different โฆ
The world famous Roman Baths could help scientists counter the challenge of antibiotic resistance