Think all of this anti-science stuff is no big deal? Think again. Many times it is based on race and misogyny. Read more in And now for something completely different …
We left last week in a state of upheaval on the virus front. Nothing has changed. However, there has been such a cry for more H5N1 transparency in our institutions like the USDA, FDA, and CDC to name a few. about 2-3 years ago I indicated on the Matt McNeil we are likely 5 years (minimum) away from the human-to-human jump. Indicators are sure to sound the alarm. Think I was crazy? Check this out.
Here is an update from Dr. Topol.
Here are the key points:
Confirmation of H5N1 infected dairy cattle herds in 8 states. But the FDA report yesterday of commerical milk PCR positivity strongly supports that the cattle spread is far wider than these 8 states. Important to emphasize that (PCR) is testing for remnants of virus, not live virus, which would be unlikely with pasteurization. Other tests, assessing potential evidence for any live virus (egg viability and culture), are to be reported by the FDA going forward. Limited culture tests are all negative to date for any live virus in milk.
From the great work of U Arizona evolutionary biologist Michael Worobey who (heroically) analyzed the 239 H5N1 sequences that were released Sunday night for the first time, it was likely a single initiation of transmission from bird to cows. USDA stated they believe teh outbreak in dairy cattle in the US began in late 2023, initially inTexas.
There is confirmation from sequencing of cattle to cattle and cattle to poultry back transmission. Also there is confirmation of asymptomatic dairy cattle with H5N1 infections but the extent of testing is unclear. The cows that have been infected appear to have a mild illness lasting about 2 weeks with discoloration of their milk. More information on the natural history of illness in cows and the proportion who remain asymptomatic are needed. The only documented human case to date was a dairy worker through direct contact that resulted in conjunctivitis.
For the readiness plan in case human transmission does occur, the public officials asserted that Tamiflu would be effective and it has been stockpiled, that gearing up testing would be done and, if necessary, the US could fully shift its annual flu vaccine production to make H5N1 shots at scale. They have 2 candidate H5N1 vaccines in hand that are well matched to the current sequence and there is the possibility to augment vaccine supply via mRNA-nanoparticle production. Nicely summarized by Helen Branswell at STATnews here.
It appears very unlikely, but the more the H5N1 is spread unchecked, the bigger the reservoirs and chances for further functional mutations to take hold. So better to plan for a worst case scenario.
A Federal order was put out this morning to mandate testing and reporting of cattle infected, measures to avoid further spread.
Routine testing of pigs, which is important due to their potential facilitation of spread to humans, has been negative to date. To date, data we have are based on dairy cattle; little is known or available about beef cattle, but occupational exposure notifications have been put out to dairy farms and slaughterhouses.
Read the rest here.
And we also have some great information from Dr. EFD. Here is his Xtwitter feed.
Eric Feigl-Ding
Testing conducted by the FDA on pasteurized commercially purchased milk has found genetic evidence of the H5N1 bird flu virus. ➡️But the testing, done by PCR cannot distinguish between live virus or fragments of viruses that could have been killed by the pasteurization process.
The FDA said it has been trying to see if it could grow virus from milk found to contain evidence of H5N1, which is the gold standard test to see if there is viable virus in a product. 📌The FDA *does NOT explicitly say FDA laboratories were unable to find live virus in the milk samples, but nevertheless it does state that its belief that commercial, pasteurized milk is safe to consume has not been altered by these findings.
(Sound familiar? Just like blanket assuming a virus “isn’t airborne”, “cannot transmit without symptoms”, “no human to human transmission” errors during COVID). That said, I will am hopeful that no live virus will be found in confirmation. But let’s be precautious.
statnews.com/2024/04/23/h5n…H5N1 bird flu virus particles found in pasteurized milk but FDA says commercial milk supply appears safeTesting conducted by the FDA on pasteurized commercially purchased milk has found genetic evidence of the H5N1 bird flu virus, the agency confirmed Tuesday.https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/23/h5n1-bird-flu-virus-particles-in-pasteurized-milk-fda/
2) PPE and safety googles or face shield recommended for dairy farmers and anyone handling raw milk 🥛. Also they warn about poor fitting respirators for children (who may work near dairy— like I used to help on a dairy farm as a kid in rural Pa).
3) people working with cattle 🐄 should also “avoid eating drinking smoking chewing gum in contaminated areas or touching eyes.” And people exposed should wear PPE should be monitored for symptoms for 10 days.
4) There is now a tacit indirect admission of possible asymptomatic transmission in cows with no symptoms. ➡️ Raw milk products “should not be manufactured from asymptomatic cattle that have been exposed” (to avian flu)
5) the obvious problem of course is that dairy farmers rarely wear PPEs. It’s just not part of rural culture, despite warning that high pressure spray nozzles can aerosolize virus-containing milk off the milking floor.
Unroll available on Thread Reader
6) Pasteurization (basic type) is “very likely” to inactivate H5N1 says the FDA. We also thought COVID was very likely not transmitting asymptomatically (it was), not likely airborne (it was), not likely lead to reinfection (it did), not likely have breakthrough infections (it did), not likely active in people long term (it is). Let’s learn from our overconfidence mistakes. Precautionary principle should be first and foremost.
7) I first raised my concern 3 weeks ago when avian flu first started emerging in dairy cows 🐄 in the U.S. - I think we need to be very careful because fat globules can protect viruses in high fat milk and still survive after pasteurization (in food and mouth disease virus).
Unroll available on Thread Reader
8) Famously, the FDA has said in the past that “it is not practical to target viral pathogens in cooking or pasteurization because of… heat resistance”. And the FDA quote is a blanket statement without sentence conditions. This is directly quoted from a FDA document!
Unroll available on Thread Reader
9) Always remember that USDA is a special interest commerce agency for promoting agriculture—not public health. ➡️Remember how famously “milk builds strong bones” propaganda? Well I have bad news for big dairy🥛… It doesn’t.
Bonus: find the Easter egg🥚—
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37706070/Dairy intake and risk of hip fracture in prospective cohort studies: non-linear algorithmic dose-response analysis in 486 950 adults - PubMedPrevious studies on the relationship between dairy consumption and hip fracture risk have reported inconsistent findings. Therefore, we aimed to conduct an algorithmically driven non-linear dose-respo…https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37706070/
10) Make sure you cook egg’s thoroughly. No runny eggs. Beware of homemade mayonnaise too that uses raw eggs. And please stop drinking raw egg protein shakes. (You also run a risk of biotin deficiency with raw eggs 🥚).
The Covid Wire
Keep up the pressure on these bought and paid for by Big Ag. I feel for the scientists who can’t get their research and findings out to the public thanks to their misguided leadership.
Want more reason to be disgusted with Big Ag? Read on.
Overall, Salmonella was more prevalent in commercial farm samples (52.31%) over backyard farms (19.10%). Kentucky (sequence type (ST) 152) was the most common serotype found in both backyard and commercial farms. Multidrug-resistant (MDR, resistance to ≥3 or more antimicrobial classes) isolates were found in both production systems, while ciprofloxacin- and nalidixic acid-resistant and intermediate isolates were more prevalent in commercial (33%) than backyard samples (1%). Plasmids that have been associated with MDR were found in Kentucky and Infantis isolates, particularly IncFIB(K)_1_Kpn3 megaplasmid (Infantis). Our study emphasizes the need to understand the selection pressures in disseminating megaplasmids in MDR Salmonella in distinct broiler production systems.
Megaplasmid Dissemination in Multidrug-Resistant Salmonella Serotypes from Backyard and Commercial Broiler Production Systems in the Southeastern United States
Back to Covid time. Hey anti-vax’ers, read on.
Between April 1, 2020, and February 27, 2023, a total of 3 913 063 pediatric COVID-19 cases and 12 740 hospitalizations were reported in California. Reductions of 146 210 cases (95% prediction interval [PI], 136 056-158 948) were estimated among adolescents aged 12 to 15 years, corresponding to a 37.1% (35.5%-39.1%) reduction from counterfactual predictions. Reductions of 230 134 (200 170-265 149) cases were estimated among children aged 5 to 11 years, corresponding to a 23.7% (20.6%-27.3%) reduction from counterfactual predictions. No evidence of reductions in COVID-19 cases statewide were found among children aged 6 to 59 months (estimated averted cases, −259; 95% PI, −1938 to 1019), although low transmission during the evaluation period may have limited the ability to do so. An estimated 168 hospitalizations (95% PI, 42-324) were averted among children aged 6 to 59 months, corresponding to a 24.4% (95% PI, 6.1%-47.1%) reduction. In meta-analyses, county-level vaccination coverage was associated with averted cases for all age groups. Despite low vaccination coverage, pediatric COVID-19 immunization in California averted 376 085 (95% PI, 348 355-417 328) reported cases and 273 (95% PI, 77-605) hospitalizations among children aged 6 months to 15 years over approximately 4 to 7 months following vaccination availability.
Conclusions and Relevance The findings of this case series analysis of 3 913 063 cases suggest reduced pediatric SARS-CoV-2 transmission following immunization. These results support the use of COVID-19 vaccines to reduce COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization in pediatric populations.
COVID-19 Vaccination and Incidence of Pediatric SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Hospitalization
Paxlovid has been in the cross hairs lately. Years later doctors still have no optimal guidance for its use. (We need alternatives SO badly). This study needs to be expanded obviously.
Among the 104 patients who received Paxlovid, 62% began treatment within an optimal three-to-five-day day window after symptoms appeared. Our findings indicate that broader global access to Paxlovid, coupled with appropriately timed treatment, can mitigate the severity and transmission of SARS-Cov-2.
The Covid Xfeed
Already a long post. Plenty to come later!
And now for something completely different …
I have felt unreasonably questioned in much of my science work over the last 30+ years. New methods for dispersion modeling, how dare you. Studies on climate change and different aspects of forcing, how dare you. Coupling atmosphere and biome models to help understand climate, are you nuts? More recently in July 2020, MAPS indicated 300,000+ new infections, 3,000+ deaths a day by 2021, are you crazy? With this in mind let’s see how the baseless smear of science is going these days. Makes me think about the added burden non-white scientists might face.
It can be demoralizing for a person to work in a climate of repetitive skepticism and doubt about what they know, a new study shows.
"I'm not talking about healthy, well-founded skepticism. I'm talking about failures-of-exchange when a person is persistently overlooked, unheard, brushed off and explained to," said Laura Niemi, assistant professor of psychology in the College of Arts and Sciences (A&S), and co-author of the study.
"Why? Something about who the person is—their identity—suggests to their interlocuter that they couldn't possibly be right due to the interlocuter's bias. These biases take many forms: race or ethnicity, manner of speaking, weight, attractiveness, age, style and so on."
Researchers have theorized that baseless discrediting of what people with marginalized social identities know is a central driver of prejudice and discrimination. In a new study, Niemi and colleagues conducted experiments that backed up these theories, finding that people are emotionally invested in being treated as credible, even in anonymous games. Further, they found that emotional impact of discreditation varies based on gender, race and experience with racial discrimination.
Here is the summary article.
The real deal is below.
I wonder how this article will be received, there is a couple women coauthors on this. Oh, and a Chinese person. Yikes! Never mind he works at CIRES in Boulder, CO, he has a weird name … good grief stop you idgets.
Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates
For my fellow physics nerds out (@stanzupforit) there, this one is for you!
Modern physics suggests time may be an illusion. Einstein’s theory of relativity, for example, suggests the universe is a static, four-dimensional block that contains all of space and time simultaneously – with no special “now”.
How logic alone may prove that time does not exist
Stay safe and help those who need it most.
take care,
Joe
*A special note: this is a free newsletter. I spend 4 hours a day just reading and another couple of hours putting together this newsletter. Donations out of kindness are deeply appreciated. All donations go toward the purchase of another server that will allow my modeling work to go global with a small percentage toward climate causes. You can go to my substack homepage if you wish to donate.
Where do viruses hide in the human body? | The BMJ
Understanding immunity and viruses through the John Snow Project
Variant tracking at the CDC
Infections at WHN (updated!)
The neuroinvasiveness, neurotropism, and neurovirulence of SARS-CoV-2: Trends in Neurosciences (cell.com)