Yes, it is our only choice. We (at the WHN that works with it) have spent months cleaning up the data and going back to the first year to get the correct conversion to infections. I have the ability to go back to deaths and hospitalization to derive them but that data is no longer specific enough and asymptomatic rates have skyrocketed. We are in the process of getting the raw wastewater data converted on a state by state basis which will improve the forecast. Remember I also use the CDC wastewater variant proportions to initialize the variants. I used to use it on a regional basis (10 regions) for initialization but the regional analysis lags by about a month unfortunately.
Yah...I was afraid that CDC data might be your only option. Here is an article about mismatched primer sets. I would imagine that a CDC contractor does not have a lot of incentive to make sure their primers are the correct ones for the currently circulating variants...
Underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater due to single or double mutations in the N1 qPCR probe binding region
Thank you. We have another problem since the others sites used are N2 and E 😞 this is also common in European WW sites. I want to run the model globally (closed system) but a lot of work lies ahead.
Yes, it is our only choice. We (at the WHN that works with it) have spent months cleaning up the data and going back to the first year to get the correct conversion to infections. I have the ability to go back to deaths and hospitalization to derive them but that data is no longer specific enough and asymptomatic rates have skyrocketed. We are in the process of getting the raw wastewater data converted on a state by state basis which will improve the forecast. Remember I also use the CDC wastewater variant proportions to initialize the variants. I used to use it on a regional basis (10 regions) for initialization but the regional analysis lags by about a month unfortunately.
Yah...I was afraid that CDC data might be your only option. Here is an article about mismatched primer sets. I would imagine that a CDC contractor does not have a lot of incentive to make sure their primers are the correct ones for the currently circulating variants...
Underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater due to single or double mutations in the N1 qPCR probe binding region
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.02.03.24302274v1
Thank you. We have another problem since the others sites used are N2 and E 😞 this is also common in European WW sites. I want to run the model globally (closed system) but a lot of work lies ahead.
No rest for the weary.
Interesting...Covid positive cases spiking in HHS Region 2 consistent with wastewater spike in the northeast. Maybe noise...but interesting.
Hi Dr. Eastman...I guess (?) you rely solely on CDC wastewater data for your analyses?
Perhaps this is the only practical way to approach this, but I am reminded of the words of Grand Moff Tarkin to Princess Leia...
"You're far too trusting, Princess...but we'll deal with your rebel friends later."